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Gold talking points:

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We have seen gold prices continue to fall this summer. Last week finally brought an important test of support at the 1700 area. Although prices tested below $1,700, they did not break past August’s all-time low. But the buyers were long gone before the price was tested and this led to a similar withdrawal from the slings. That support test was carried out last Thursday, followed by a strong response next week.

Thursday’s daily price action is closed because it is full and Friday’s continuation price jumps directly into the first resistance area, the Fibonacci engineering area hits 1723-1733. So far this week, the open resistance area has helped keep the bull going, but not just for the sellers – just the benefit of history.

Daily gold price table

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gold lasts a long time

Gold’s trend since June and the big picture since April were clear. Gold marked the $2,000 bubble level in mid-April and the weekly bar concluded as an unprepared engulfment. The sellers then moved in two steps, first retreating to the 1785 support, followed by a four-week pullback. A selloff followed in June, which brought prices back to main support.

The reason for pointing this out is the possibility of a pullback after last week’s sell-off entered a key support position.

While uncontrollable tendencies remain attractive and thinking about them remains a permanent weakness, the main issue is decision-making. An undisclosed source of gold was pulled from an overbought point in the daily newspapers on July 5th*. So in the next two weeks, there’s a lot, like RSI. it was the price action set lower values ​​and the RSI started to show a bigger drop.

Now that we have the start of a reversal of this unexpected move, the big question is how long it will last, and the technical context may leave the door open for prices to return to resistance at 1753 or perhaps stay at 1785. -image of a tenor undisciplined.

Weekly Gold Price Table

Gold in the short term

Is this trap enough? Or could the bears attack before reloading further once the support component comes into balance?

However, looking at this week’s financial calendar, it is clear that there are many opportunities. Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision will be a big booster for equity markets and includes both the US dollar and gold. But even with the US GDP release on Thursday and Friday, we get the popular PCE GAUGE on H growth. Expectations are in line for 4.7% and this follows the latest Consumer Sentiment reading from University of Michigan.

Yes, the economic calendar is loaded this week and from that amount of risk money there are likely to be new pricing themes here. From a technical standpoint in Gold, the breakout of the resistance 1712 support opens the door for the run to 1700, after which the negative energy break remains awaiting the August 2021 test at 1677.9.

This support area could remain a thorny area for price action, as below, the 2021 pullback and another pullback to 1673.3. For both levels to be disclosed, we will likely need a strong movement of the US Dollar and this is something that can also show up in equities and other types of capital assets; but it is more visible in Gold, currently due to the ongoing struggle in H to balance inflation.

On top of Gold, the breakout of the 1723-1733 resistance opens the door for a rise in the second resistance area, arranged at 1751-1753, after another meeting point enters the chart, arranged between Fibonacci. patterns of 1763 and 1771.

Four hour gold price table

By Rodrigo